Mach-E Resale Forecast: Heavy Depreciation in Three Years
Dealers hoping to make a few bucks off of off-lease Mach-E models may not make as much as hoped at 39% to 41% of MSRP.
The Mach-E is one of the hottest Mustangs to roll out of Dearborn. While some aren’t too pleased to see the name on an electric crossover, others are ready to ride the horse through the electric storm rolling through the industry in the 2020s and beyond.
Those who wait for those first ponies to come off-lease may not need to pay as much, though. According to InsideEVs, a hard-and-heavy depreciation hit is predicted for the Mach-E, to the tune of just 39% of its original MSRP by the third year.
“Ford is bracing for exceptionally poor resale values on the Mach-E, as revealed by Ford’s bulletin of lease residual values sent to dealers,” wrote ReturnOfTheMack on the Mach-E Club forums November 18. “After three years, a rear-wheel-drive Mach-E Select is expected to be worth only 39 percent of MSRP. These expectations of plummeting resale value are in sharp contrast to Tesla, with many media outlets this year reporting the Tesla Model 3 holds value better than most or all other new car models.”
The above chart paints a dark picture for lease residuals once the cars return to the dealer to go into the used market. The hardest hit models are the Select and GT trims, predicted to fall harder on four-year lease contracts at 32 percent. The higher trims like the First Edition fare little better at 41 percent by year three.
As for why the poster claims Ford is predicting such a hard fall in value, a moderator of the forum, MachDrive, believes the Blue Oval crew are “leaving themselves a 15 percent reserve on the residual for used market resales.” He goes on to say such residuals are “vastly lower” than what reality demands. Not to mention that “the lower the residual value claimed, the more profit is made on each car.”
There’s a lot of dark financial math at work here. However, it appears things aren’t as scary as it is on paper. We’ll see what happens soon enough.
Photos: Ford, Mach-E Club
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