rhumb

The "Bubble" was probably the era of cheap oil that we're leaving. Current prices have probably overshot a more rational price lately, but I don't expect oil to drop below $75bbl and probably will settle closer to $100bbl and rise slowly hereafter.

Hydrogen is better thought of as an energy storage medium than an energy source. Terrestrial hydrogen is plentiful but bound together in larger molocules -- water mostly -- that needs to be broken apart by processes that take a lot of energy. Where THAT energy comes from will determine how cheap and clean a hydrogen economy would be, aside from the substantial costs of fitting a hydrogen-capable infrastructure.

Hollywood_North GT

Nuclear fusion (not fission) is now the Holy Grail of energy development. Though almost certainly still a ways away, scientists around the world are scrambling to develop this technology which could enable the fusion of hydrogen atoms derived from sea water. Think of it: unlimited energy from unlimited and cheap ocean water. It will put the oil-producing countries out of business.

Meanwhile, I also read something recently (can't quite remember where) about a new technological process that may be able to "manufacture" oil suitable for conventional uses - and this new oil is apparently almost carbon emission free. If I find it, I will post it up here.

One significant breakthrough could change everything. What we need right now is a "moon shot", and I suspect we may see it within 20 years, if not sooner.

V10

There is a finite amount of silver.

If you look at the history of oil, there have been many boom-bust cycles.

One factor everybody seems to forget is the US $$ has dropped to 1/2 the value it was 10 years ago. In the last 10 years the price of oil in US $$ has quadrupled while the price of oil in Euros has doubled. It wasn't that long age that you could buy a Euro with 82 cents. Today it takes over $1.60 to buy a Euro.

hi5.0

I'm eagerly awaiting my "Mr. Fusion" for my Mustang retrofit.
I think the (almost) carbon-free oil "manufacturing" technology you're thinking of revolves around genetically engineered microorganisms (bacteria) that eat carbon-rich organic waste and "excretes" a petroleum substance as a waste product. Another candidate is algae. I've seen that mentioned somewhere too - just forgot where! What ever the case may be, IMO, it is way past the time to look into developing alternative sources of energy instead of relying on the same old, same old petroleum from the ground. I remember in the 80's watching films (gasp - the kind on reels!) during science class about stuff we're "suddenly" looking into again today. Stop being held hostage by OPEC AND the oil companies. (falls off soapbox...) whoops! back to topic!

Hollywood_North GT

No there isn't, for silver is almost always melted down and reused - unlike oil, it is a recyclable commodity.

I understand what you're trying to say - but, in fact, that's a red herring in this discussion, because this isn't a boom/bust cycle, this is a finite resource depletion issue.

True, but we're not talking about a 10 year period for the purposes of this discussion. Look at what's happened in just the past few months. Sure, the price of oil may come down a little bit again - temporarily - but we have to come to terms with the fact that it will never again be $60 or $75 a barrel. We're hitting peak oil just as global demand for the stuff is exponentially increasing. It's a simple A to B to C equation, and it's not in our favor, unfortunately.

Hollywood_North GT

Yep, that was it. Here's the story.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4133668.ece

V10

Even if you can reuse silver, there still is a finite amount of it.

Hollywood_North GT

Not of the stuff you reuse.