Woot possible 07' Shelby
10/27/05, 03:51 PM
#21
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Originally posted by crazyhorse@October 27, 2005, 1:59 PM
The perceived shortage and NEAR future value of the Shelby is all internet hype. Ford will produce enough of them. The cars will drop in value just like all other cars. It will likely be worth a fair amount of money in 30 years as this will be known as the 2nd muscle car era.
Your investment money will be much better spent in the stock market. People that buy these cars should buy them to drive them, not make money down the road. If you want to make money on this car, buy it when the value drops to its minimum, not maximum (buy low, sell high).
Posting things like "you won't be able to touch one for under $65k" is rediculous and only adds to the hype. A few of these cars might get 5 or 10 k the first month or 2. After that they will be sticker and eventually under.
How many of you experts are actually planning to buy one new off the lot?
The perceived shortage and NEAR future value of the Shelby is all internet hype. Ford will produce enough of them. The cars will drop in value just like all other cars. It will likely be worth a fair amount of money in 30 years as this will be known as the 2nd muscle car era.
Your investment money will be much better spent in the stock market. People that buy these cars should buy them to drive them, not make money down the road. If you want to make money on this car, buy it when the value drops to its minimum, not maximum (buy low, sell high).
Posting things like "you won't be able to touch one for under $65k" is rediculous and only adds to the hype. A few of these cars might get 5 or 10 k the first month or 2. After that they will be sticker and eventually under.
How many of you experts are actually planning to buy one new off the lot?
I plan to buy one new off the lot. Anyone planning on babying this car will likely hang on to it. Those buying it as a "go fast" Mustang may end up selling eventually - thus creating some available in the used market - but my worry with this type of car is that that type of owner may have been driving the bag off it (abusing it), and I don't want to take that chance.
I agree with you, those who can afford this car will eventually be able to get one. It might be better to wait till year two anyway...let Ford get the bugs out.
Also, this car will guzzle gas like crazy (premium, too!) - which means those purchasing one probably are doing so as a second car (not a daily driver). People with the disposable income to purchase a $40K + Mustang as a toy are not common. This actually WILL be my daily vehicle, but since I live in the heart of the city (and walk or use public transit), it's not uncommon for me to go for two or three days and not even use my vehicle, so I'm less worried.
On another note: I was driving behind a Toyota Avalon the other day, and as I stared at the silver letters A V A L O N on the back of the car, I was reminded of how someone on this forum reported that Ford would probably drop the Shelby letters across the back because they couldn't figure out a way to make them stay on properly. Has our engineering ability in North America really slipped so far that we can't figure out how to do a simple thing like this when other manufacturers can? It reminds me of the whole global window down thing. My friend just bought a Infiniti G35 coupe (with the sport and premium pkgs - great car) and he can remotely lower and raise his windows with no fuss. Ford's solution: disable the feature and offer no fix.
Maybe we should all just wait for the unveiling of the final Shelby and see if it's something that still even appeals to us.
10/27/05, 03:55 PM
#22
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Originally posted by markski74@October 27, 2005, 6:38 AM
I don't recall reading this on this forum but SVT did have a lease program for their last Cobra model that entitled the owner to get first dibs on a new Cobra. I wonder if those people would still be subject to a markup.
I don't recall reading this on this forum but SVT did have a lease program for their last Cobra model that entitled the owner to get first dibs on a new Cobra. I wonder if those people would still be subject to a markup.
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10/27/05, 04:22 PM
#23
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As far as the Shelbys go I am not in the market for one. The car looked pretty sharp at the NY Auto show, but the pictures I have seen lately of it show little difference from the 05 GT, and lots of cost cutting measures. (Like whats up with the nostral vents level at the hood). If I am going to pay 40 to 50 grand for a car, I want it to look the part. As far as the hype there is plenty out there, so if demand is high supply will ultimately be low, with more emphasis on the mustang gt for high supply. Value, well that is individual owner dependent. To me 40 to 45K tops for it, but I don't doubt the average buyer will pay 60 to 65k. I have called a few dealerships about information, and most have waiting list anywhere from 10 to 25 people. Doing the math at 10,000 units a year, puts about 1 to 2 cars per year at a dealership. So if you want one bad enough you will pay for it, otherwise someone who wants it more will get it. I hope the dealers charge a premium for them and I hope those who get them, drive them the way they should be driven hard, but inteligently. If you pay that much, you sure as heck better enjoy it.
10/27/05, 05:25 PM
#24
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Originally posted by NiteHawk422@October 27, 2005, 3:25 PM
To me 40 to 45K tops for it, but I don't doubt the average buyer will pay 60 to 65k.
To me 40 to 45K tops for it, but I don't doubt the average buyer will pay 60 to 65k.
Most people with that much money also have the brains to realize that if they turned around and traded it back to the dealer a year later, they'd only get $24K for the car...if they were lucky.
In that scenario you'd be enduring a 40% depreciation off the MSRP, ON TOP of losing the 50% markup you shelled out to get into one of these cars. You'd have to be completely brain-dead to pay the markups some dealers are suggesting.
I really think that once the initial demand for these cars is satiated that they will be available to those willing to pay MSRP.
10/27/05, 05:46 PM
#25
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Hey Jeffrey, How's that Mach running. The Comp Orange Mach 1 is one of my favorite late model 'stangs.
I have been reading these post for months without too much response. I'm just tired of seeing the perceived price rise without anything more than speculation and hype.
I have been reading these post for months without too much response. I'm just tired of seeing the perceived price rise without anything more than speculation and hype.
10/27/05, 05:50 PM
#26
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Originally posted by BC_Shelby@October 27, 2005, 6:28 PM
I SERIOUSLY doubt very many people will pay $60K to $65K for this car; and CERTAINLY not 15,000 to 30,000 people.
Most people with that much money also have the brains to realize that if they turned around and traded it back to the dealer a year later, they'd only get $24K for the car...if they were lucky.
In that scenario you'd be enduring a 40% depreciation off the MSRP, ON TOP of losing the 50% markup you shelled out to get into one of these cars. You'd have to be completely brain-dead to pay the markups some dealers are suggesting.
I really think that once the initial demand for these cars is satiated that they will be available to those willing to pay MSRP.
I SERIOUSLY doubt very many people will pay $60K to $65K for this car; and CERTAINLY not 15,000 to 30,000 people.
Most people with that much money also have the brains to realize that if they turned around and traded it back to the dealer a year later, they'd only get $24K for the car...if they were lucky.
In that scenario you'd be enduring a 40% depreciation off the MSRP, ON TOP of losing the 50% markup you shelled out to get into one of these cars. You'd have to be completely brain-dead to pay the markups some dealers are suggesting.
I really think that once the initial demand for these cars is satiated that they will be available to those willing to pay MSRP.
10/27/05, 05:53 PM
#27
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"I really think that once the initial demand for these cars is satiated that they will be available to those willing to pay MSRP."
Well you have to define intial demand? If demand is anything like the 2005 Mustang people will pay it. Not only will they pay it, they will pay it for years to come. It was not uncommon to hear of buyers paying 5 to 7 over MSRP for a Mustang GT. When will the Hype die down the second question? Thats a WAG (Wild hiney Guess), maybe in 2009 or 2010, just in time to redesign the body. From a business point of view, I would build only enough units to supply the thrist of demand. I would envision that to be around 6 to 7000 units a year.
Well you have to define intial demand? If demand is anything like the 2005 Mustang people will pay it. Not only will they pay it, they will pay it for years to come. It was not uncommon to hear of buyers paying 5 to 7 over MSRP for a Mustang GT. When will the Hype die down the second question? Thats a WAG (Wild hiney Guess), maybe in 2009 or 2010, just in time to redesign the body. From a business point of view, I would build only enough units to supply the thrist of demand. I would envision that to be around 6 to 7000 units a year.
10/27/05, 06:37 PM
#28
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What you saw was a percieved markup, you have absolutely no idea how many people actually paid those prices. Sure some fools did pay outrageous markups for whatever reason, but not in the numbers you think.
I sure as heck didn't, and I actually know lot's of people first hand that got better than X-plan, so don't believe everything you read, or see on a window sticker, take it with a grain of salt.
Same will happen with the Shelby, those few thousand who absolutely have to have one right frikin now, will swipe theirs up at a premium, because they like bragging rights, and that will leave the rest to go for MSRP and if they go into a second year, below MSRP.
I sure as heck didn't, and I actually know lot's of people first hand that got better than X-plan, so don't believe everything you read, or see on a window sticker, take it with a grain of salt.
Same will happen with the Shelby, those few thousand who absolutely have to have one right frikin now, will swipe theirs up at a premium, because they like bragging rights, and that will leave the rest to go for MSRP and if they go into a second year, below MSRP.
10/27/05, 07:13 PM
#29
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Originally posted by NiteHawk422@October 27, 2005, 4:56 PM
"I really think that once the initial demand for these cars is satiated that they will be available to those willing to pay MSRP."
Well you have to define intial demand? If demand is anything like the 2005 Mustang people will pay it. Not only will they pay it, they will pay it for years to come. It was not uncommon to hear of buyers paying 5 to 7 over MSRP for a Mustang GT. When will the Hype die down the second question? Thats a WAG (Wild hiney Guess), maybe in 2009 or 2010, just in time to redesign the body. From a business point of view, I would build only enough units to supply the thrist of demand. I would envision that to be around 6 to 7000 units a year.
"I really think that once the initial demand for these cars is satiated that they will be available to those willing to pay MSRP."
Well you have to define intial demand? If demand is anything like the 2005 Mustang people will pay it. Not only will they pay it, they will pay it for years to come. It was not uncommon to hear of buyers paying 5 to 7 over MSRP for a Mustang GT. When will the Hype die down the second question? Thats a WAG (Wild hiney Guess), maybe in 2009 or 2010, just in time to redesign the body. From a business point of view, I would build only enough units to supply the thrist of demand. I would envision that to be around 6 to 7000 units a year.
"It was not uncommon to hear of buyers paying 5 to 7 over MSRP for a Mustang GT." Proof for this statement? Not where I come from. I haven't talked to A SINGLE '05 or '06 GT buyer who paid over MSRP yet.
As to only building enough to "supply the thirst of demand," that's hardly a strategy that a cash-starved company like Ford can afford right now. Better to amortize the R&D and engineering costs by making a few more, rather than keep is sooooo exclusive that your core base can't get into one, while potential new Ford customers are turned down from buying one. That simply sends out the message: "We DON'T want you to buy a Ford, we want you to go buy another brand."
What did Ford lose third quarter this year? Oh, that's right, $284M. Yeah, that'd me a smart strategy.
It's more likely that if demand is high for this car they'll make few more - maybe increase the volume of production a little for year two - just like they ramped up production of the new '05 style when it became clear that it was a huge success.
All this, "you won't be able to get one, you won't be able to get one," is mostly Chicken Little nonsense.
10/27/05, 07:29 PM
#30
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BS "if you are not on as list you won't get one". Okay so I am not on a list. At my local dealer who is one of the few SVT certified in the country says he has 5 people on a list. Okay now there are 605 full SVT dealers. Saying what he told me was correct, he could easily be blowing smoke thats 3025 cars folks. Your svt focus dealers? There are 700? None of these will have 5 people on a list! People have a misconception every dealer will have a gt500 on thier lot. Not even close. Salesmen have to go through special training and mechanics need to do the same to be certified to fix SVT products This is not a gimme. A dealer near me has a Ford GT in the showroom and is not updating to get the SVT certification. Even at 5 people per dealer which is not realistic that leaves 3500 cars left in 2007 alone if only 10,000 are made. In 2003 SVT made over 13,500 cobras. Some argue well thats because they didn't make them in 2002. Well guess what they didn't make them in 2005, 2006 either. I also talked to a rep a few months ago and he said if the Shelby gt500 is successful it could go on for 20 years. I don't remember reading anywhere it would cancel after two years. I believe I did read a three year run was planned but not set in stone to end. The bottom line is HTT said anyone who wants the car and can afford msrp will get one. 7,000 vehicles was committed to before the convertible was announced. Now they are saying 10,000. If the demand is there 13,000 could be made. SVT reps have said this. Remember the limited production 1 year run of the mach 1 at 5,500 vehicles, 2 years and over 17,000 vehicles later. Svt is not stupid, they do not make anymore profit at msrp or 20,000$ over. They will make enough cars to fill demand. That is how they make money. This will more than likely be 21,000 to 30,000 if demand is there. the vast majority of these cars sold will be at msrp or lower. Don't be an idiot, bend over and pay dealer markup! Be a man, be assertive, grab your ***** and say no, msrp or forget it. Guess what if no one pays over msrp the prices will lower faster and just like in 2003 markup will be gone in a few months. The ford gts are now selling for msrp after a year. Those of you wanting to pay 65,000 spend it on real estate!You will thank me later. The car will depreciate just like any other. This is not a car made of gold.
10/27/05, 08:37 PM
#31
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Originally posted by BC_Shelby@October 27, 2005, 9:16 PM
"It was not uncommon to hear of buyers paying 5 to 7 over MSRP for a Mustang GT."
"It was not uncommon to hear of buyers paying 5 to 7 over MSRP for a Mustang GT."
That surely increased their IQs. Lets give some a ringy dingy and see how they feel about their "investment" now.
10/27/05, 11:15 PM
#32
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Originally posted by 1 BULLITT@October 27, 2005, 7:40 PM
That surely increased their IQs. Lets give some a ringy dingy and see how they feel about their "investment" now.
That surely increased their IQs. Lets give some a ringy dingy and see how they feel about their "investment" now.
10/28/05, 07:12 AM
#34
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Originally posted by MilStang@October 27, 2005, 3:04 PM
I plan on buying off the lot new....but you already knew that. I hope to be the 2nd TMS member to get a Shelby...or 3rd, 4th etc.
As long as I get one I can wait. I can't wait for Crazyhorse, BC and Crispy to get theirs. I want to see them in every color.
I plan on buying off the lot new....but you already knew that. I hope to be the 2nd TMS member to get a Shelby...or 3rd, 4th etc.As long as I get one I can wait. I can't wait for Crazyhorse, BC and Crispy to get theirs. I want to see them in every color.
:drive:
PS- a car as an investment is always a risk, unless it's already proven a "winner", and you buy it right. NEVER BE AN EMOTIONAL BUYER. They'll make you pay EVERY time. Invest in real estate when the market corrects. My .02
10/28/05, 11:51 AM
#36
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Originally posted by BC_Shelby@October 28, 2005, 1:19 AM
I try to do that at least once a day.
I try to do that at least once a day.
10/28/05, 02:04 PM
#37
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GeorgeI did talk to some SVT reps and so far they have all mentioned that it is a 2 year deal with Shelby with the possibility of a 3rd year right now. Yes, they will continue to build new Cobra's in the years to come.
No guarantee that they will be Shelby's but many people don't care about that. The ones that do will just have to be patient to get the price you want or blow a lot of money at the first dealer you come across that convinces you they are the only ones going to get the car for you.
...and as stated above grab whatever you have, for the ladies that will get this car, and don't cave to the first dealership with a markup.
10/28/05, 05:25 PM
#39
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Originally posted by Fordracing200@October 28, 2005, 3:07 PM
it'll be just as 'rare' as the terminator, you should be able to get one once the demand goes down a bit.
it'll be just as 'rare' as the terminator, you should be able to get one once the demand goes down a bit.
10/28/05, 08:48 PM
#40
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I already followed Crazyhorse advise. Cancelled with a dealer asking 5K over MSRP, put the 5K in the stock market and let it sit for 30 years. So, by year 2035 I am not going to drive a crappy Mustang but a nice Ferrari.