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Looks Like Curtains For GM

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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 12:54 AM
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Now this is a distressing story, likely with an inevitable outcome.

Wall Street's confidence that General Motors Corp. Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner can restore the company and avoid bankruptcy down the road is evaporating -- quickly.

Wall Street bets against GM
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 07:20 AM
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Ford is in the same boat. They both banked heavily on the SUVs. GM moreso than Ford. Also, they both have huge liabilities regarding the pensions, wages, and employee healthcare costs. The last issues is a major factor among most companies in the US nowadays.

Both companies are going to have to cut some model lines and become a smaller company before anything else. They have to stop trying to sell into every market. First the Japanese took over over the small car market, now the Koreans have wrested that niche away from them. The Koreans have dominated it with their product model. The domestics need to concentrate more on the mid to upper middle market, and simply drop the low end cars.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 07:37 AM
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I would think ford is looking a bit better than GM in the eyes of stock market analysts and stuff. They've got all sorts of good new lately... what with the fusion looking like a decent success, and now this sweet V6 coming out, lots of talk from Ford about future innovation... the goal of 250,000 hybrids a year.. they seem like they could have a decent couples years coming up for them.

Meanwhile, GM has a crazy fast vette, some nice new full size SUVs, a pair of roadsters and that's about it. That doesn't sound like much in terms of making money, especially with SUV sales going the way they are.

I think analysts have caught onto this and that's why we're reading this about GM and not Ford.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 07:56 AM
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Originally posted by mustang_sallad@November 11, 2005, 9:40 AM
I would think ford is looking a bit better than GM in the eyes of stock market analysts and stuff. They've got all sorts of good new lately... what with the fusion looking like a decent success, and now this sweet V6 coming out, lots of talk from Ford about future innovation... the goal of 250,000 hybrids a year.. they seem like they could have a decent couples years coming up for them.
I've seen a lot a great ideas from Ford, but when I see what the neighbors are buying, and what is parked at the mall, its more of foeign automakers than the domestics unfortunately. I love the new 500. Ford needs to market that more IMO. The problem is that the 'perceived' quality of foreign automakers in higher, so people tend look their first.

The hybrids have a ways to go before they hit that number. Its still a niche market. Also the technology isn't there...yet. There seems to be reliability issues from what I heard. It will get there, but not as fast some think.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 11:46 AM
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Originally posted by mr-mstng@November 11, 2005, 8:59 AM
The problem is that the 'perceived' quality of foreign automakers in higher, so people tend look their first.


exactly
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 12:13 PM
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Originally posted by mustang_sallad@November 11, 2005, 10:40 AM
I would think ford is looking a bit better than GM in the eyes of stock market analysts and stuff. They've got all sorts of good new lately... what with the fusion looking like a decent success, and now this sweet V6 coming out, lots of talk from Ford about future innovation... the goal of 250,000 hybrids a year.. they seem like they could have a decent couples years coming up for them.

Meanwhile, GM has a crazy fast vette, some nice new full size SUVs, a pair of roadsters and that's about it. That doesn't sound like much in terms of making money, especially with SUV sales going the way they are.

I think analysts have caught onto this and that's why we're reading this about GM and not Ford.
I agree with you there Jeff. While Ford has been putting a lot of effort into technology and safety, GMC has just sat on its haunches trying to wait out the problems.

I don't think that GM will be going bankrupt but they definitley dug themselves deeper and are certainly being left behind with these latest issues. They really don't have any stand out accolade for their company like Ford does with safety.

Mr-mustang is right about the "percieved" quality of imports. Too many people are stuck in that 70-80's mentality. And that is definitely a problem. Ford needs to make it known about how great their cars are, especially the 500, which has recieved rave reviews from almost everyone!

That aside, GMC really did shoot themselves in the foot with this error.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 01:47 PM
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this doesn't look good
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 04:09 PM
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Originally posted by mr-mstng@November 11, 2005, 7:59 AM
The problem is that the 'perceived' quality of foreign automakers in higher, so people tend look their first.
Well whether or not it's "perception" - and I seriously questions that assertion - or actual quality differences, the REALITY is it doesn't matter, because more and more people are buying imports, and getting them to change their "perception" in time to save the domestic automakers from Chapter 11 is going to be the biggest challenge GM and Ford have faced in their histories.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 04:39 PM
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Although GM or Ford likely would stand a good chance of surviving a Chapter 11 reorganization, the negative Ã*mpact on specialty vehicle development and racing programs could be significant. Lets hope it doesn't come to that.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 04:59 PM
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Originally posted by 1999 Black 35th GT@November 11, 2005, 12:16 PM
I don't think that GM will be going bankrupt...
I must respectfully disagree here. I believe the writing is on the wall and that nothing short of a miracle will save them now.

Read the below:

General Motors Stock Analysis

GM is DEAD. Cause of death? Multiple, but lets start at the top. GM makes terrible cars.

Okay, so the Cadillac has made a turnaround but that has more to do with a social phenomenon induced by hip-hop culture and raw, bigger-is-better emotion, something which is hardly sustainable.

Quick, what comes to mind with the thought of GM . . . blank? Me too. Actually GM is comprised of the aforementioned Cadillac, Buick, Chevrolet, GMC, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Saturn, Hummer, and Saab brands. Oh yeah, I know what comes to mind - Oldsmobile, riding in the backward facing jump seat of my family's 1979 Oldsmobile Custom Cruiser station wagon with faux-wood paneling flipping off unsuspecting motorists. Same car I took to high school prom. Cool, real cool.

Problem is GM hasn't done anything to innovate over the past 30 years, continually losing market share to foreign imports. And now, the golden goose of SUVs has finally met its match in rising gas prices and the building forces of the green meanies. Worse yet, the foreign makers have not only caught up in the SUV department but have gone above and beyond in the hybrid/cross-over market. Innovation is a wonderful thing.

Should a company that loses $3 billion in a single quarter manufacturing cars even be in the car business? Well, actually GM's not really a car company, it's a finance company. GM makes more money, a lot more money, ramming incentive-laden cars down consumers' throats and providing financing to them, financing that has increasingly come at 0%. But lending at 0% and borrowing at 2-3% doesn't sound like a good business. But that hasn't yet caught up with the company; don't worry it will. And in a rising rate environment it will only get worse.

In addition, GM has only been able to do this with the help of an accommodating financing market. Despite trading at junk levels for quite some time, GM's official debt ratings remain investment grade. The rating agencies are loathe to downgrade GM's debt due to the massive dislocation that would occur in the debt capital markets. Should they finally execute the fait accompli? Look out below.

Moving beyond the top line, GM is bloated. So bloated it is going to explode. Years of failing to grapple with its unions have left it bound, gagged, shackled, and stuffed in a box in the basement like the GiMp. GM is so beholden to their unions that it is more cost effective for them to maintain underutilized factories and pay their employees full wage to sleep on the job. Not to mention that they continue to pay handsome benefits to the ones that have done them the favor of retiring.

This thing is a dog...a dog with fleas.
On the other hand, that miracle could come in the form of a government bailout (a la Chrysler) or a foreign buyout.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 05:14 PM
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I think if GM continues to march towards bankruptcy like a lemming to a cliff, a government bailout is virtually guaranteed. GM is so big that the thought of them truly going under scares me, if only for the undeniable impact it would have on the economy, specifically jobs.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 06:30 PM
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Originally posted by Q`res@November 11, 2005, 7:17 PM
I think if GM continues to march towards bankruptcy like a lemming to a cliff, a government bailout is virtually guaranteed. GM is so big that the thought of them truly going under scares me, if only for the undeniable impact it would have on the economy, specifically jobs.
If GM was in danger of actually shutting down and this was the 1970's or 1980's I'd agree, but that's not the case. The current political climate just isn't the same as it was back when the federal government stepped in to take on unfunded pensions in the steel industry. The possibility of any sort of bailout involving federal funds is remote, to say the least. It seems to me that GM is more likely facing a profound reorganization, and if that is insufficient, a buyout or merger would be much more likely. If that were the case, I'd be looking at Toyota as a likely company to play that role. Robert Friedman and other economic analysts have been suggesting that as a possible solution to GM's woes.
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Old Nov 11, 2005 | 07:59 PM
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Originally posted by fumaca@November 11, 2005, 6:33 PM
If GM was in danger of actually shutting down and this was the 1970's or 1980's I'd agree, but that's not the case. The current political climate just isn't the same as it was back when the federal government stepped in to take on unfunded pensions in the steel industry. The possibility of any sort of bailout involving federal funds is remote, to say the least. It seems to me that GM is more likely facing a profound reorganization, and if that is insufficient, a buyout or merger would be much more likely. If that were the case, I'd be looking at Toyota as a likely company to play that role. Robert Friedman and other economic analysts have been suggesting that as a possible solution to GM's woes.
Yeah, I think a buyout is likely too - and Toyota is the logical candidate. HOWEVER, don't forget the importance of GM's military contributions. Those alone might make the government step in.

But I do think it's time for the company to consolidate and tighten its operation. Dump Pontiac, and just have Chevy and Cadillac. Having the same redundant, dinosaur truck platforms across two divisions (Chevrolet and GMC) is absolutely assinine, given the company's situation.

Fold the Saturn division too, and just have one roadster (no need for a Solstice AND a Sky). Any of Saturn's hot new products can become Chevys. Make Chevy the Honda Toyota competitor...and Cadillac the Lexus, BMW, Infiniti fighter. Tighten and focus, improve quality, and get rid of the fat at the top. My god, why don't some of those Mahogany Row execs take a cut in pay and show they're committed to the company?

I honestly feel that if GM goes down, it brought it upon itself.
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Old Nov 12, 2005 | 07:53 AM
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Originally posted by BC_Shelby@November 11, 2005, 8:02 PM
I must respectfully disagree here. I believe the writing is on the wall and that nothing short of a miracle will save them now.

Read the below:
On the other hand, that miracle could come in the form of a government bailout (a la Chrysler) or a foreign buyout.
You bring up a really good point there. I guess we'll just have to sit back and see what happens.

I honestly don't think we'll see a buy out or merger, I believe the gov. would step in because of all the military technology they provide. Then again the military is looking to contract Ford for a new light armored vehicle to replace the Humvee based on the F-350 chassis (it was in the latest Popular Science mag, good read). Apparently the MP's use the F-350's and love them more than the Humvees.

I do however agree with you BC_shelby that we will see a few of their subsidaries being cut. Thats the problem with GM, their redundancy. While Ford, Lincoln and Mercury use vehicles that share technology like the Fusion/Milan/Zephyr, they're all a bit different unlike GM's woes with producing basically the same vehicles between GMC/Chevy.

The thing with GM that I notice that insteasd of focusing on building better cars like Ford has over the past few years and changing things, GM continues to just pump out new models trying to attract sales.

I think Ford has it right by drastically increasing their quality and safety while GMC has it all wrong. This may be a blessing in disguise for us Ford fans. Because of this we may gain more business from former GM owners. Who knows

My god, why don't some of those Mahogany Row execs take a cut in pay and show they're committed to the company?
Theres no way Lutz the Klutz would be as generous and Bill Ford Jr. and take a cut. Lutz and his cronies are just too greedy
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Old Nov 12, 2005 | 04:00 PM
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Old Nov 12, 2005 | 09:24 PM
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Originally posted by future9er24@November 11, 2005, 1:49 PM


exactly
i figure this thread will be a big debate, so instead of debating, i am agreeing with Rob and Arin
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Old Nov 12, 2005 | 09:44 PM
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It'd be nice if Ford scooped them up. Imagine... a Ford Corvette...


Seriously though, I hope something works out...
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Old Nov 12, 2005 | 11:21 PM
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Originally posted by Autotooner@November 12, 2005, 9:47 PM
It'd be nice if Ford scooped them up. Imagine... a Ford Corvette...
Seriously though, I hope something works out...
Ford doesn't have that kind of capital. They're in serious trouble themselves.

You're more likely to see a Chevroyota.
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Old Nov 13, 2005 | 10:02 AM
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Originally posted by BC_Shelby@November 13, 2005, 1:24 AM
You're more likely to see a Chevroyota.

dude! that name actually sounds half decent. i like it! I dunno, if Chrysler was owned by Mercedes, and GM owned by Toyota, I would be scared for Ford as the only true american automaker, going it alone. Like toyota would start putting all sorts of money into GM, in a couple years turning it into this like american toyota with profits bursting out the seams, and ford would just be scrambling to keep up with these foreign powered super companies...
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Old Nov 13, 2005 | 11:33 AM
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Its sad but GM has been doing the wrong things and is contiuning that path..

Lets just add more hp..then we'll sell more. Forget the fact our interiors plastics feel like bricks.
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