74Mach1

I’m going to put forward a proposition that’s likely to be unpopular on this forum, namely that Ford may have blown it with the design of the 2005 Mustang. (This is NOT based on opinion – I own one and love it. Rather, it’s based on sales history.)

The sales success of the Mustang has always depended on the sales of the base models, not the performance models, the fastbacks or the convertibles. Traditionally, over 1/2 of the purchasers are female. Over 2/3 choose the V6. Performance models certainly don’t determine the Mustang’s success. Even in the late 1990s, as the Mustang was driving the Camaro from the marketplace, the Z28 still handily outsold the GT. What killed the Camaro was that few people wanted to buy the V6 version.

Here's some data:

1966
Coupe 499,751
Fastback 35,698
Convertible 72,119

1968
Coupe 249,447
Fastback 42,581
Convertible 25,376

1972
Coupe 76,754
Fastback 46,260
Convertible 11,853

1974
Coupe 267,148
Fastback 118,845

During the era of the Mustang II the fastback started closing the gap, but this wasn’t just a fastback, it was a hatchback, and that adds a great deal of utility. So much so that during the Fox years the hatchback outsold the coupe, but there hasn’t been a hatchback since 1993. The current 2+2 design may well lack both the broad-based appeal of a traditional coupe and the utility of a hatchback.

So, are there any outward signs of this yet? Here in Birmingham, AL, V6s were being sold for invoice almost as soon as they appeared and they’re already piling up on dealers’ lots. Sure, the GT is still a hot ticket, but that’s a relatively easily saturated niche market. I think Ford made a big marketing mistake when they didn’t offer a third body style – the notchback coupe.

05GT-O.C.D.

Ford's marketing department does not make mistakes.

EleanorsMine

I would sooner kill myself than drive a notchback 05.......I love mine, I love its style, I am female and I have a v6.There I did my part.

TMSBrad

Mustang sales have done just fine without a coupe for the last 11 years--well enough to drive all others out of the market. Looking at some of our digital artists' work, I don't think Ford would sell more than half a dozen true coupes.

If you're in Birmingham, you need to check out Magic City Mustangs.

TomServo92

The previous generation didn't have a notchback. Why do think one is needed now?

jsheehan

Brad is exactly right. Even though they have been called coupes, every nonconvertible mustang since 1994 has essentially been a 2+2 fastback, and they have sold great. i doubt this year will be any different.

TMSBrad

The one thing I think Ford Marketing should change, however, is the V6 to GT ratio. There are at least a dozen V6s on the local dealer lots, and only one or two GTs, if any at all. Clearly the V8s are selling well; they should be making more of them than they are right now.

Route 66

Please, notch the notback.

TomServo92

I agree. I think Ford didn't anticipated the public's desire for V8 powered RWD cars. They assumed the V8/V6 ratio would be like in previous years.

jsheehan

It will be interesting to see if this changes. I can understand ford's decision to do this, as V6s have traditionally outsold GTs by a very wide margin. I am guessing that in order to build more GTs they would have to up production of the 3V 4.6L engine, and if it turned out that the current trend didn't hold in the long term, then they would be stuck with extra unused engine production. It's kind of like trying to peer into the future and predict sales to know how much production for each product is needed. It will be interesting to is the 2005 mustang bucks the previous trend of the base model/GT sales ratio.

Uncle Nicky

id like to see Ford to bring back a V-8 model slotted between the 6 and the GT.

iiibdsiil

One of the dealers near me has at least 12 V-6's on the lot, and not a GT to be seen. I do see a lot more V-6's on the road, but that is probably because you can't get a GT.

74Mach1

"Sold great?" Yes and no. Good numbers but they've gone steadily downhill:
1965 - 559,451
1974 - 385,993 (but outsold by GM F-bodies)
1984 - 141,480 (but outsold by GM F-bodies)
1994 - 123,198 (but outsold by GM F-bodies)
2004 - 180,000 (but they were the only car in that niche)

I'm not proposing that the readership of this forum would PREFER a notchback. I'm suggesting that if in 2008 sales drop below 100,000 because there is no notchback, then there may not be a next generation Mustang.

Martimus

Personally I'm having trouble seeing where a Notchback would do much more than dilute the existing sales of V-6's and GT's. Have dealers been inundated with requests for notchback's? My feelings are that the addition of alternatives like a notchback only makes sense if there is suppressed demand for it.

74Mach1

The five Ford dealers in the Birmingham area currently have 62 V6s and 4 GTs on their lots. So, I think you can get a GT (I was offered a LL GT for list at Ernest McCarty 3+ weeks ago as well as an offer to order a GT for list by Long-Lewis), but that's not my point. My point is that V6s, which are the Mustang's bread and butter, are backing up on lots just a couple of months after they became readily available even though they're already being deeply discounted. This may signal trouble.

ponyboy66

There is one thing not mentioned.
I don't think that 90% of the general public even knows this car exists yet.
Once it catches on with Joe 6 pack, the base models will be soaring off the showroom floor. IMO

stoic21

"Sold great?" Yes and no. Good numbers but they've gone steadily downhill:
1965 - 559,451
1974 - 385,993 (but outsold by GM F-bodies)
1984 - 141,480 (but outsold by GM F-bodies)
1994 - 123,198 (but outsold by GM F-bodies)
2004 - 180,000 (but they were the only car in that niche)

I'm not proposing that the readership of this forum would PREFER a notchback. I'm suggesting that if in 2008 sales drop below 100,000 because there is no notchback, then there may not be a next generation Mustang.
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The mustang is no longer the car that it started out as. So the sales nombers will never be what they once were. The mustang price has gone up conciderably since the 60's and 70's. Those prices were closer to what the civic and focus are now.
As for being out sold. they were never out sold. You can't count two seperate models from two different subsidiaries as outselling. The camaro and the firebird each had their benefits which is why GM offered both and sold some of each. Mustangs have always outsold camaros, and always outsold firebirds. The notchback wasn't the reason. The 05, or any recent model for that matter would look sinfully ugly in notchback form.

Martimus

The five Ford dealers in the Birmingham area currently have 62 V6s and 4 GTs on their lots. So, I think you can get a GT (I was offered a LL GT for list at Ernest McCarty 3+ weeks ago as well as an offer to order a GT for list by Long-Lewis), but that's not my point. My point is that V6s, which are the Mustang's bread and butter, are backing up on lots just a couple of months after they became readily available even though they're already being deeply discounted. This may signal trouble.
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From what I've seen Ford has not done a whole lot to market the 05 'stangs yet. They did the ad during the Superbowl for the vert but you don't see Mustang ad's all over the airwaves. If they were concerned that the cars weren't selling you can bet they'd be advertising like heck! As for discounts we haven't seen too many discounts out west. And with snow still being on the ground in much of the country I don't anticipate that sales will state to soar until spring.

jsheehan

Yeah, I get this impression from a lot of people. Today, a guy said I had a crazy car, and asked me if I had bought it off the lot like this. I said of course and drove off (I was in traffic.) I got the impression he had no idea that this is what the new mustangs look like.

red454

Does anyone know the current production numbers - how many V6s and GTs have been built since September?

It will be interesting to see what impact the convertible has once spring is here...