The honda quote wasn't to you, it was to the person who said "180,000 is not many"

 

Excellent point about the small dealerships selling 3 or 4 stangs. Didn't actually mean to overreact, but I've never been this excited about any purchase since buying my house. Coupled with the talk about pre-orders, allocations of 2 vehicles per dealership, etc...I have been concerned about whether I'd be able to walk into a dealership and buy an 05 gt in mid-january. Grantsdale...what might the chances be of this happening 90 days or so after job 1? Probably decent if 68/day x 90 = 5850 vehicles!?!

 

I dont know about that, our average inventory is 100-115 or so stangs, all models

 

I'm sure you'll be able to get one without a problem in Jan. Again, this is a mass produced car. It isn't a high end handbuilt, its a car for public consumption.

 

Yes, you should have no problem getting a car in January. Production will be fully running by then and with snow on the ground in the north there will be plenty available.

 

I missed it in your previous post ... its 68 an HOUR, not a DAY. Even if you cut that in half and do 34/hour, there are 2 ten hour shifts a day, so thats 20 hours x 34 = 680 a day x 90 days = 61,200 cars.

 

To refresh eveyone's memory as to what the Ford engineering manager @ Foxboro said: The original production plan was for 180,000 - 05 Stangs. They have put plans in place to run 2 x 10 hour shifts. Full production capacity (assuming no production line breakdowns or parts shortages from suppliers) would be 195,000.

Don't forget our friends in Canada. Expect about 8% to 10% of the 05 Stangs to go to Canada and some others to go to other countries around the world. I'd estimate that it will leave 175,000 units for the US.

Now let's look at historical sales #'s. These were pulled from the Ford media web site (I can't think of a more official source).

US only Mustang sales, calendar year 2003: 140,350
US only Mustang sales, calendar year 2002: 138,356
US only Mustang sales, calendar year 2001: 169,198
US only Mustang sales, calendar year 2000: 173,676
US only Mustang sales, calendar year 1999: 166,915

So to put it another way, Ford has only planned for 0.8% higher US sales of the 2005 Mustang than they had in 1999. Add to that the US economy appears to be in a pretty good recovery with workers feeling more secure about their jobs than in 2002 and 2003 and significant numbers of new jobs finally starting to appear. This is already reflected in 2004 US sales which as of May 31 are running at an anualized rate of 157,000.

I think that there will be an 05 Stang shortage for quite a while.

 

An extra 40,000 cars over 2 years ago is no small feat. There will be plenty.

 

You seem to be ignoring that 2 years ago you were in the 4th year of the present model (introduced in 1999) that had NO siginificant improvements and the economy was in the pits.

You also seemed to be ignoring the breakdown of US verses total sales. For US only sales its closer to 35,000 more than the worst sales year for the SN-95 Stang. Add to the mix Ford will most likely run out of 04 Mustangs 2 months before the 05's start to show up on dealer lots which increases the pent up demand.

 

First, the 180,000 estimate is for US sales.

Second, economy has never had any effect on car sales since the Great Depression.

Third, you are forgetting that the general public does not know much about the car yet. The advertising doesn't start until November. Then they'll begin to look at it. By then, production will be at full. Ford has been doing this for 100 years. They know what they are doing by now.

 

I keep hearing reports like V10 just gave, but @ 61,000+ every 90 days, I'm not that concerned. I think the first 90 days might be tight, but after the initial rush, supply should catch up with or meet demand...and a surplus may begin at that point as well.

 

The economy has had an effect on car sales. The auto co's got in the incentive game in the first place trying to prop up sales during downturns.

The public's awareness of the new Mustang is far greater than you think. I've had totally non car people bring up the subject of the 05 Stang. Just today someone, who has not owned a Mustang in 20 years, complained to me that he won't be able to get a 05 Convertible until next spring.

When was the last time there were significant #'s of people ordering standard model Mustangs 4 months before they go into production.

Eventually things will even out, but I still think that the 2005 Mustang will be sold out. You will probably be able to get one sooner or later but a lot of people will have to settle for one without the color and options they wanted.

 

Exactly. Someone said that 05 production ends end of July I believe. That means 180,000/11= 16,300 cars a month.

 

Post Proof or Retract. Car sales historically are always the same average percentage.

 

The dealership that I ordered my 05 from is allocated 4. This is a huge dealership.
I am number 3

 

Ill stick my head in the lions mouth, and agree on both sides. However, the economy was fine in 1999, it tanked in 2000, months after Bush took office, because of mismanagement and bs from Clinton in the last months, and left it on Bush's lap, coupled with 9/11 and it went tumbling.

Economy directly impacts car sales, without question. The debate would have to be quantity of that impact. Grantsdale is correct, the last significant and nearly crippling sized impact would be the Great Depression, people without jobs cant afford to buy or drive cars, 18% of the country unemployed, etc. That being said, a slow economy, or weak economy leads to shaky consumer confidence, which can and will lead to slower car sales week to week, month to month, but impacting in a severe or crippling way.

Link 1


Link 2

Car Sales are one of the first piece of economic data released every month. It is one of the leading indicators of economic activity; it is the first indicator to turn down when the economy goes into recession and the first to rise when it rebounds. Strong car sales means people feel confident in buying a car that they'll pay for continuously for the next three - six years. People aint buying if they cant pay.

Link 3

Just a post where Ford analysts say strong economy is going to help pick up their sales.

And no, the Mustang will not sell out. Demand will be high, and might be hard to come by at first, but once promotions and everything start, i dont realistically see Ford selling out, just like an F-150.