I think the ADMs will be shorter lived than we think. I just called 7 dealerships in my area. Among those are 1 full line SVT, 2 SVT Focus and 4 small town dealers. The expected initial allotment for them totals 11 cars before Share of Nation (which may yield even more cars). Of those 11 cars, only 2 were actually sold. Of course, each dealer has a list. Each of them are "waiting to see what the market does"

If there were an endless supply of 10 or 20k over sticker buyers, more of these cars would be sold. Once the cars start rolling in, they are going to realize that there are several cars available and they will sell them cheaper.

How quickly it crashes depends on how quickly Ford puts them out. I'm thinking by December or January, we will see prices stabilize.

If some of you get the chance, I'd like to know what is going on in your area. Call around and see how many are actually sold vs. waiting to call everyone on the list.

Also, the unfavorable mag write ups may slow sales a little. If the C6 can beat it for 20k less (same price without the 20k markup), why pay 20k over. 500hp or not, it isn't faster than the Vette.

 

I agree 100%, all the recent magazine articles really let the wind out of my sails regarding the GT500. Basically, I wouldn't pay MSRP for one at this point as it doesn't seem worth the cost for what you get in return.

 

Illusions vs. reality.

Do you recall a few months back I posted about of the GT500 perhaps NOT being the flawless perfection we were all making it to be, the possibility of defects, recalls, and short comings? All the testing in the world will not guarantee complete satisfaction or perfection.

I recalled the '01 BULLITT GT being labeled as "the best Mustang GT ever" as was the 2005 GT. Do you remember how upset some members would get about the negative comments being made, until the '05's issues began to flourish and they themselves experience them?

I am not putting the GT500 down in any manner whatsoever. With any car there are calculated risks and most of us are willing to take them, for a fair price.

NOTE: The GT 500 pics a few weeks ago of the spilled anti freeze woke up a lot of people and the perception of perfection went down the drain right there and then.

 

I want the market to crash and hard. Then my dad can pick one up at a reasonable price. Then one of these cars will be owned by someone who enjoys these cars not just has lots of extra money or one upper syndrome.

 

"Anti freeze." "...down the drain." I will call you 'Mr. Pun' from now on.

Seriously, at the end of the day, the Shelby is still just a Ford, and that name will only get dealers so far when it comes to ADMs. Factor in the less-than-stellar reviews the car is getting (slower than a stock Vette, c'mon!), and ask yourself if the improvements over the GT are really worth the extra money. I think it will quickly become apparent that the GT500 is the most over-hyped car of the year.

I also think the ADM honeymoon will be short-lived.

 

I hope you guys are right, I have been waiting a lot of years to get a new cobra. I never dreamed they would throw the Shelby name on it and cause such a hype. One reason Mustangs are so popular is because they give you the best bang for the buck. Once you break from that formula, sales will suffer.

 

==How quickly it crashes depends on how quickly Ford puts them out. I'm thinking by December or January, we will see prices stabilize.==

I agree completely, I've been saying the same thing for months now. There will be an initial flurry of people who are willing to pay 25k over sticker to be the first person in town to own one, but let's face it, there just aren't that many buyers out there that will go that high. Once those deep pocketed buyers are exhausted, the price will drop down to more reasonable levels. I expect within a couple of months we'll be seeing prices at 2k to 3k over sticker and it will probably stay there a while, then in 6 months to a year they'll be down to sticker. Who knows, maybe even under sticker.

I suspect there is an artificial inflation of actual buying interest going on, I've read several stories of people getting on multiple dealership waiting lists to increase their chances of getting one. Also there are a lot of dreamers out there that probably jumped on a waiting list with big dreams of getting one, but reality may come crashing down when the dealer calls them and tells them their car is ready to pick up

 

I looked at vettes the other day.Test rode one too.Nice car,but I would rather have a shelby.As far as them being the same price,Good luck finding one under $50,000.Most are around $52-$57,000.Only way to get a low option one is to order it.

 

Actually, the Chevy dealer that I am dealing with orders the base model with Z51 regularly. It stickers around 45 and can be had for less. The margin on Corvettes is LARGE.

I don't like it quite as much as the Shelby either. Unfortunately, I can get my hands on a Corvette, but, not on a Shelby. IF they are not human-priced by next Spring I will likely be known as crazyhorse from the corvette forums. I'm fed up with the Shelby hype. I have been avoiding the forums for a few months because of that. Now that I am back, I'm getting my blood pressure up again. Maybe it is time to go back in to lurke mode again.

 

From a current CNN article:

"Still, actual selling prices will eventually come down to something at least closer to the sticker price, said Jim Hossack, of the automotive industry consulting firm AutoPacific.

'It's a handful of people willing to pay that much,' he said."

I agree.

 

Is your bloodpressure rising because you're not confident in your own predictions that the ADMs will disappear, Crazyhorse? You've been pretty adamant about that. Or is it because you're afraid you may not be the first TMS member to acquire one?

Either way, I'd relax, because I'm certain you'll be able to get one at sticker no later than the end of MY '07.

But you're right, there's lots of product out there to choose from, not to mention forthcoming SE Mustangs in the pipeline. And the C6 Vette is a terrific ride, just a different category of vehicle.

 

I'm still confident that they will fall. They always do. My BP is rising from the aggravation of it all.

I don't need to be first, per se. I have been waiting on this car for 8 years. I sold my last Mustang 10 years ago when I went back to school. I justified selling my baby because I would replace it when I finished. 3 kids, 2 student loans and a mortgage later, I still don't have my car. I waited because the new chassis promised a better car than the previous. Now I am being forced to wait again because of dealer greed and buyer stupidity.

I'll get my car. If I don't, I'll get something else (Vette, used Viper. used 911 Turbo or Roush Stage3). I shouldn't be forced to buy one of those other cars. HTT promised they would build one for everyone that wanted one. I still think they will, but, I have no proof of that.

edit: Part of my aggravation with dealers and Ford stems from me being 1st on a list for the Shelby since before the concept was shown. This car was promised to me at MSRP as they had never charged AMV before. This Spring the Ford Reps started selling the GT500 program to dealers by telling them that they would be able to get $20k over sticker for them. Well, of course, the dealer started to see the possibilities for 20 over on his 3-5 cars. crazyhorse gets told he is no longer first or anywhere near it unless he bones up the big cash. Since then the small dealers that I have dealt with for years are now telling me that my business is not important enough to them to sell the car at MSRP because they can sell it to someone else (that they will likely never see again) for more money.

 

I definately understand your frustration, the whole thing really sucks and it's a complete slap in the face, especially to loyal customers. But I guess you just have to look at it from the other point of view...you can't take a handshake and a promise of future business to the bank...whereas $60,000+ is quick easy profit no matter how short lived the hype may be ...

 

I agree prices will crash. Just because a few people are willing to pay $20K+ AMVs doesn't mean that the rest of us will pay that.

Any dealer who turns down a $5K AMV today is going to be kicking himself in his rear end 6 - 9 months from now when that GT-500 is still sitting on his lot and the going rate for GT-500s is sticker or less.

This is exactly what happend with the Terminator Cobra, Mach 1 and Ford GT. Many dealers turned down $50K AMVs on Ford GTs only to end up selling them for close to sticker a year later.

 

Yeah, well it would seem that Ford's "short term" thinking is still in full effect, and extends all the way from the top down to the dealers.

Just another reason Ford's market share is steadily falling, I guess.

 

Hold steady Crazyhoarse, you have been the voice of reason here. I have been waiting sense 96 for a cobra myself and your words of wisdom are helping hold out one more year.

 

personally, I'm looking forward to what the competition has to offer, and when they plan on offering it. As far as I can see, the GT500 is a GT with FRPP suspension package, wider wheels, a 5.4 block from a pickup with heads and blower from a previous cobra. Nothing particularly innovative. Still has fit and finish issues of a mustang - glued on ducktail spoiler, butt-ugly hood vents, and massive wheel wells. It's still a pretty good deal at MRSP, but not at +$20k

 

Thanks for the encouragement. I will hold out for a while longer. I'm gonna see what Spring brings us. If the car actually is still getting over sticker (I really don't think it will by then). I'll prob move on then. IF prices look like they are gonna stabilize, I'll wait it out.

 

>Seriously, at the end of the day....

there is another day. And, Shelby prices will go down.

I've been watching sales of the Mazda MazdaSpeed6. It's a 5000 or so production run with lots of "stuff" 275 hp turbo, tons of torque, direct injection, 4-wheel drive, etc. At MSRP, a lot of car of the money.

The local dealer has 20 of them and that's true of most Mazda dealers. Remember, 5000-run. MS6s currently are selling at about $4k below MSRP. That's not going to happen with the GT500, but 8000 cars is a lot for what most here would agree is a niche vehicle.

BTW, the MS6 is the car I'm likely to buy instead of the Shelby. Let the flames begin!

 

You guys best stop this right now! It sounds like this is as clear case of collusion as I've ever seen... now that I think about it, it's sort of like what the dealers have been doing the past few months.