adnlyn

So the dealer i got my 05 gt calls me yesterday to ask if i was still in the market for a GT 500 ( had my name on the list). i say sure and he tells me the coupe is going for 65K and the vert is 70K. he says he is getting a few of them and i can get one. I told him i will wait til the market comes in but the point of this is the cars are out there if they are calling me to see if i want one. I was number 11 on the list and all of his cars were spoken for at the time, so either everyone backed out or he got 6 more cars because he was only getting 5 when we last spoke.

2007GT500

Yep...in the past 30 days, I've received three similar phone calls (...all following up to calls I made a couple of months ago). The last call I received was for $10k over...but the car wasn't on the ground. The sales guy said it's in production and they expect it within 30 days. I think the sweet spot is $10-$15k over. $20k over and the dealer is hoping to get lucky.

It's important to see how far they're going down the list looking for a buyer. In your case, chances are none of the guys ahead of you were stepping up to the plate...which is good information. That means potentially "serious" buyers (the guys that took the time to get on a list early) are not paying $20k over. One call I received was for $15k over and the dealer told me that I was "probably number 30" on his list when I made my original phone call a while back. The market is NOT as deep as many of the dealers really believe it is (...or, at the very least, want you to believe it is).

Jbahoffman

Could you please share with us what states you guys are in???

Thank you!!!!

adnlyn

ny/nj border

Hollywood_North GT

Proving what many of us were saying all along: that dealers are grossly over-inflating the value of this car...along with their perception of what people will really pay. In 10 to 12 months, you will be able to walk in and buy one of these things at MSRP.

2007GT500

I'm in California...

BC_Shelby...I think you're dead on. It's also what I've been singing over at stangunleashed for the past two or three months.

An interesting question for me has been which dealers are breathing their own exhaust and which ones are simply going for the "lucky" shot that someone will come in and pay above market value (...meaning ADM in excess of $10k-$15k...which is my best estimate as to the current market value of the car).

My experience is that the small dealers are more likely to breathe their own exhaust for a bunch of reasons...the big dealers usually know that they're just playing a game and trying to maximize their run at ADM. Having said that, most sales people (big dealer or small) have absolutely no clue about the size of demand...they just go off what their sales manager / general manager is telling them. And I believe the information from dealer management is often intentionally distorted (...but I have no evidence of this).

The fact that the small guys are less sophisticated also means the chance of finding a deal is skewed toward the small dealers because they are less likely to want to play the game or understand the game.

More interesting data: In May, I found a deal for $5k over...small dealership getting one car. No one was on their list and they hadn't been getting a bunch of phone calls. I gave the deal to another member of stangsunleashed two weeks after I originally found it (and I had not locked down the deal). Also in May, I got on the list at a large California dealership that claims to be getting 3 cars. I'm #4. They haven't finalized pricing, but they've hinted at $3-$5k over. Ultimately, the deal I took was lucky...MSRP found in June. The dealer called me back following up on my repeated inquiries....he asked me what I would pay, I said MSRP, and he said okay. But that was LUCKY (combined with hours of making phone calls). And he might back out of that deal...which would be a pain for both of us.

Bottom line: the demand for a $45k-$50k Mustang just isn't that deep. Prices will come down much more quickly than most people think.

codeman94

These cars will be at MSRP in 75% of the USA by November....


...maybe

drmustang

The pool of buyers who are willing and financially capable of purchasing a $45,000-$50,000 Mustang is quite small and will dry up very quickly.

Guys that can afford toys in this price range rarely have Mustang on their list. This car is priced well above the affordable range for the majority of the core enthusiats who spoke with their wallets and forced 6-7 thousand dollar discounts on the last SVT offering which stickered $10,000 less than the current GT500. 45k for a coupe could actually become a real problem within a year.

Jolly Roger

This is a special Mustang, and it can't reasonably be compared to previous SVT products. I believe demand is very strong and will support ADM's for quite some time - maybe even for the whole production run. I don't think the ADM's will be $10K + for too long, but I can envision $2.5K to $5K ADM's for quite some time. Hell, the '05 Mustang GT's had markups in this range throughout the entire first model year and perhaps the beginning of the '06 year as well, and MANY more copies of this car were made in '05 alone than we will ever see of the Shelby. There are a LOT of people out there who can afford a car in this price range, and many of them grew up wishing they had a Shelby. Now is their chance.

05retro

I was 25 on my list and the dealer had called me up asking if i wanted the first one. I felt good knowing I wasnt the only one who thought 25k over was too much. I told them when it got down to 10k to call me back and discuss. Since they didnt call back im guessing they got 6 people to fork over 67k.

Terrorbl T

SUH-weet! Under 45k and I'm ALL IN! Thought I would have to wait two years......
Looks like I'll throw the 6k I had set aside for the "roushcharger" into the market, and wait!

Webba

I was down at my dealer this week getting work done on another vehicle and I talked with my salesman about when they were getting their 500's in and when he would know about getting more. The sales manager said he hadnt been serialized yet still and they figured September. Now we are in Maine and always seem to be the last to get things but that is BS. Getting a car just in time for winter is crazy. Ford wonders why they dont do well in the northeast with sports cars. He still wont give me an answer as to when he will have more allocation. They claim they have all 3 of their 07's sold but we will see when they hit the floor. I think half of what they tell you is horsesh*t. I have been talking with the sales manager at another dealership the past few weeks. I am thinking of switching dealers due to garbage service work. He is working on getting me one at MSRP. If he comes through I will be switching. So my normal dealer I have bought 5 vehicles from in the past 5 years will lose out on this one and a new truck this year. Greed kills.

pville piper

Yeah.... riiiiiggggghhhtttttttt!!!!! Let me remind you there are still 05 mustangs on dealer lots. And yes.. there are still dealers charging ADMs on new mustangs. And no, this is not that special of a mustang... It's production in 2 years will exceed the total number of all previous Shelby Mustangs COMBINED! With that factored in just how long will it take for an investor to re-coup his money? Yes there are a lot of people who think they would like a Shelby, but they will tire of it quickly because they don't really like driving a beast that this car is. THis is not some refined euro toy. We have seen that trend on 05 and up as it is... "Oh cool, it looks just like the old stangs!" But then they get one and find out that it doesn't drive like their Honda Accord or Toyota so they sell it. This is going to happen a lot with the Shelby... Oh it looks cool... but it won't drive like their Beamer or Benzs that they paid the same money for.

drmustang

You have brought up an excellent point here. There are going to be more than just a few guys who jump into one of these GT500s and not have a love affair for the reasons that you have stated. Car buyers have whether they realize it or not, certain preconceived notions and definite expectations about how a higher priced(+ $40,000) vehicle should be appointed and most of all "feel". This car isconsidered by many to be overpriced and has the potential to underwhelm a buyer who is not foccused entirely on straightline, neck snapping power.

There are quite a few C6 Z06 owners griping about the rough manners of their new toy. This is fueling a rapidly populating used market for this car. The same scenario is likely to develop with our latest, greatest, "Special" Mustang.

Hollywood_North GT

The Shelby just isn't that special, frankly. The MSRP is right where the car should be priced. At $45K it's a great car. But at the end of the day, who cares if it has 500 bhp? In the real world, that's just bragging rights. In the real world, the car is overweight, nose heavy, darts all over the road (when the road surface is uneven) according to most journalists who've tested it, has plastic stripes, a ride height that is way too high, and a handful of 90 cent badges that apparently make the car worth $65K...?

I don't think so.

This is the most over-hyped car of the year, and when the hype wears off, and the rich enthusiast base has had their fill, the car's price will plummet back down to reality. I give it 10 to 14 months, tops.

drmustang

The production numbers on this car will satisfy the pool of anxious and "got have the latest hot car at any price" buyers in fairly short order. This will in the not to distant future leave the traditional Mustanger as the primary consumer. Mid 40s pricing could then rapidly become a brick wall.

Tres Wright

I also predicted quite a while back that the market would not support the big markups we've been seeing for long. I mean, how many people are there in the US that are willing AND able to buy a Shelby for 60 to 70k? 50? 100? Even 500 maybe? Honestly I can't imagine there are 500, but the bottom line is even if there are 500, there will be LOTS more than 500 Shelbys made. Once those initial gotta-have-it buyers are used up, the prices are going to come down quickly. Patience is the key, I think we may be seeing prices between invoice and sticker within a year.

crazyhorse

I think it is several thousand. The market is still strong for them. The cars that sell on ebay are selling for between 15 and 20k over. Occasionally, they come in at 10 or 30, but most are in that range. Several of the cars are not selling because they "are no longer available".

I still think about Sept/Oct we will see them soften to 10K, then by December (Winter weather in the north) they will drop to 5 over with an occasional MSRP deal. By Spring, the factory will catch up with demand and they will all be MSRP and stick there for a long time while us commoners ****** up the MSRP cars.

Depending on how the market is doing, I may just wait until 2008 anyway. This depends on how many reliability issues there are and what, if any, changes (colors, options, etc) are available. By then we should know if there are any ticks or gas tank issues or whatever.

GottaHaveIt

Does not Ford worry about this kinda stuff going on ? Nice car and all but I will not pay that price over,and if some Dealers want up to $ 50,000.00 over it's just wrong and in my eyes makes Ford ( the parent look bad ? but now if Ford has already sold said car to that dealer , well I guess they may take a local hate on that crime.

2007GT500

I agree with Crazyhorse's guess.

And, GottaHaveIt...if $50k over is "wrong," then what is the "right" amount over? If it's 0, how do you deal with the huge supply/demand imbalance? How do you determine the "right" amount, anyway?

There's nothing special about MSRP...it's just a number that Ford picked because it thinks that number will clear the market (...well, in this case there was probably internal pressure to keep the MSRP low because of marketing statements made prior to release of the vehicle...so my guess is that Ford does not think MSRP is the appropriate price. Since it puts Ford in a pickle to bump the price up, it's done the next logical thing: bumped the production up).