General Vehicle Discussion/News Non-Mustang Vehicle Chat, Other Makes

Analyst Forecasts Decline of US Auto Industry

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 12:08 AM
  #1  
Hollywood_North GT's Avatar
Thread Starter
Closet American
 
Joined: July 17, 2005
Posts: 5,851
Likes: 1
From: Vancouver, BC (Hollywood North)
Analyst Forecasts Decline of US Auto Industry

Even as the Senate looks set to kill the auto bailout bill, comes this new report >>

After the shakeout, the Detroit Two will see its prominence diminish. Foreign automakers will overtake Detroit's automakers in 2011, Robinet said, and offshore companies will build 54 percent of North American vehicles in 2013.

There will be smaller cars on the road, many of them developed, designed and engineered overseas, he said.

To meet demand for them, "we may find ourselves with more imports into the U.S. than we thought," Robinet said.

Full story.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 09:30 AM
  #2  
Eights's Avatar
Bullitt Member
 
Joined: December 17, 2007
Posts: 410
Likes: 0
Originally Posted by Hollywood_North GT
Even as the Senate looks set to kill the auto bailout bill, comes this new report >>

It's sorta looking like it will be the Detroit One--or to be politically correct, the Dearborn One. Chrysler doesn't seem to have anything going that would enable surviving after the bail-out money (if approved) runs out, and GM burns through cash faster than a celebrity mistress. Ford might suffer if the two weaker manufacturers close up shop because the subcontractors will hafta raise their charges since they'll not be able to spread their operating expenses among Ford, GM, and Chrysler any more.

It's always smartest to produce the entire product yourself--farming out subcomponents makes you vulnerable to the fortunes--or misfortunes--of the subcontractors you depend upon. It may not be the most cost-effective way, but it's the best way in the long run...
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 09:42 AM
  #3  
adrenalin's Avatar
I Have No Life
 
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 10,605
Likes: 2
Well I don't think I am alone when I say they should not be bailed out.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 09:59 AM
  #4  
2k7gtcs's Avatar
Post *****
 
Joined: October 9, 2007
Posts: 32,808
Likes: 163
No bailout. I fully admit bad things are going to happen either way. But the bailout and a car czar is just bad for eveyone. I wouldn't trust a government appointed dog catcher czar. Government is not the answer folks, it is the problem.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 10:47 AM
  #5  
adrenalin's Avatar
I Have No Life
 
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 10,605
Likes: 2
I just can't help but think this problem may never have happened if Unions stopped being so greedy. I can't understand why they demand more and more money each year. Heck, I've seen guys that work in the auto industry that make more money than a family doctor and that just makes no sense to me as to how someone installing tires on a car can make more than someone in the medical field.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 11:45 AM
  #6  
97svtgoin05gt's Avatar
Shelby GT500 Member
 
Joined: July 21, 2004
Posts: 2,924
Likes: 1
From: New Jersey
Union mentality in my opinion is get whatever you can and as much of it as you can as soon as you can. This mentality is responsible at least in large part for where the "big 3" are now. It's too late now, but back in the late 80s when the Japanese big 3 (Toyota, Nissan, & Honda) were really starting to make inroads, the union crap should've been killed then. Instead we waited another 20 years and look where we are. The union automotive worker will be lucky to have a job in 2009 let alone a union job. These guys need to learn to live on 50k a year like the rest of us or America will be out of the car business.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 02:34 PM
  #7  
bt4's Avatar
bt4
Bullitt Member
 
Joined: March 25, 2004
Posts: 401
Likes: 0
A bail-out only makes sense if it promotes the survival of the recipient. I think the problem that the bail-out bill is having is--not everyone is convinced the money will save the auto industry.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll...64/1148/AUTO01

There are more than a few that think Chrysler will not survive, even if handed the requested money. If the bail-out provides money and Chrysler tanks, the government (i.e. that's us) is out a wad of money--with little, or no return.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 05:35 PM
  #8  
Hollywood_North GT's Avatar
Thread Starter
Closet American
 
Joined: July 17, 2005
Posts: 5,851
Likes: 1
From: Vancouver, BC (Hollywood North)
Originally Posted by adrenalin
Well I don't think I am alone when I say they should not be bailed out.
Originally Posted by 2k7gtcs
No bailout. I fully admit bad things are going to happen either way. But the bailout and a car czar is just bad for eveyone. I wouldn't trust a government appointed dog catcher czar. Government is not the answer folks, it is the problem.
I hope you guys like driving Toyotas, 'cause if you think any of these companies are gonna magically rise from the ashes of this downturn with NO help, you're smokin' some serious gunja. Buh-bye American auto industry...hello Hondoyotamobiles for everyone.

I guess it's OK for Europe to bail out its auto industry, though, eh? (That's right, they're in trouble, too - so it ain't just policy failures at the Big 2.5.) And BTW, it's not a bailout, it's a bridge loan...big difference.

It'll make a great new slogan for the Repugnican Party: "We killed the American auto industry, and we're proud of it!" Good luck getting back into power again before...oh, say 2050.

Last edited by Hollywood_North GT; Dec 11, 2008 at 05:37 PM.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 05:46 PM
  #9  
2k7gtcs's Avatar
Post *****
 
Joined: October 9, 2007
Posts: 32,808
Likes: 163
A bridge loan until they can build more subcompacts that no one wants at $1.50/ gallon. I would be OK with the loan if it didn't let the government tell the big 2.5 what they could produce. I think a bridge loan from the government seals their fate too. I think its lose/lose either way. The only reason the dems are wanting to do this is to preserve their unions. If they'd bust the unions and then give them 15 billion as a loan I'd be all for it Hollywood.
Reply
Old Dec 11, 2008 | 05:46 PM
  #10  
GottaHaveIt's Avatar
Team Mustang Source
 
Joined: January 5, 2005
Posts: 13,223
Likes: 14
I thought I heard today some where they got the bucks ?
Reply
Old Dec 17, 2008 | 11:09 AM
  #11  
Eights's Avatar
Bullitt Member
 
Joined: December 17, 2007
Posts: 410
Likes: 0
Screw GM. Screw Cerberus/Chrysler. Loan it ALL to Ford, the only domestic fit to survive. Ford will build the cars appropriate to today's realities and will pay back that loan with interest, and probably pay it back early.
GM & Chrysler will be back for more hand-outs within months of getting those Treasury (that would be YOUR) funds that they'll squander on SUVS, trucks, Hummers, Camaros, & Challengers. Oh, and they'll use one percent of those funds to add nav systems to the Volt mules...
Reply
Old Dec 17, 2008 | 05:47 PM
  #12  
Hollywood_North GT's Avatar
Thread Starter
Closet American
 
Joined: July 17, 2005
Posts: 5,851
Likes: 1
From: Vancouver, BC (Hollywood North)
Originally Posted by Eights
Screw GM.
Can't. The success of the whole North American auto market is tied to their survival.
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 11:58 AM
  #13  
Eights's Avatar
Bullitt Member
 
Joined: December 17, 2007
Posts: 410
Likes: 0
Originally Posted by Hollywood_North GT
Can't. The failure of the whole North American auto market is tied to their survival.
Fixed.
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 12:55 PM
  #14  
houtex's Avatar
Legacy TMS Member
 
Joined: February 2, 2004
Posts: 7,648
Likes: 675
From: Insane
No it isn't. Get real. Nature abhors a vacuum. It will be filled.

And yes, it would appear that we all like driving our Hondoyotamobiles... or the big three wouldn't be where they are, would they?

No, adrenalin, you are definitely NOT alone... I hope that congress and the president (whichever it is) doesn't give them a dime. Shouldn't have given the housing banks any either.

Again... nature abhors a vacuum... it would be fixed *by itself*. It's called a free market. Throwing money at the makers doesn't help that.... but throwing targeted money (meaning it's a coupon, or voucher or some such that *must be spent at the store intended*) at the consumer? Possibly. A hybrid of throwing some to the makers to float them for a couple months until the targeted money thrown about to the customer might be ok.

A tax rebate is not the answer. It cannot stand. I myself put all my extra "winnings" from the IRS into my savings. Who benefited from that? Nobody. Except me and the bank, of course. You cannot just give people money and let them decide where to spend it. You have to have a premade decision "you will buy big 3 or you will not buy."

That is the only way this will be fixed. Or one of them dies outright. Which is what I predict will happen regardless... they make crap nobody wants at two of them, overall.

/Wonders how many would still take the "not buy" option if presented with it...
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 02:17 PM
  #15  
Von Bek's Avatar
Bullitt Member
 
Joined: August 22, 2006
Posts: 279
Likes: 0
Hard to buy american when there isn't anything american to buy, houtex. I've always had an american car, more by circumstance than any real need for an american car. That vacuum that nature abhors so much? It wouldn't be filled by americans anymore. It would be filled with japanese, germans, koreans and soon chinese. If those three go down, there will never be another american car company, simple as that. And I don't count things like panoz or niche builders. If they go into bankruptcy and liquidation, who do you really think is going to be buying all that infrastrcuture up? I tell you who isn't, anybody from this country.
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 02:30 PM
  #16  
adrenalin's Avatar
I Have No Life
 
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 10,605
Likes: 2
Originally Posted by Hollywood_North GT
I hope you guys like driving Toyotas, 'cause if you think any of these companies are gonna magically rise from the ashes of this downturn with NO help, you're smokin' some serious gunja. Buh-bye American auto industry...hello Hondoyotamobiles for everyone.

I guess it's OK for Europe to bail out its auto industry, though, eh? (That's right, they're in trouble, too - so it ain't just policy failures at the Big 2.5.) And BTW, it's not a bailout, it's a bridge loan...big difference.

It'll make a great new slogan for the Repugnican Party: "We killed the American auto industry, and we're proud of it!" Good luck getting back into power again before...oh, say 2050.
Well yes infact, I do like driving Toyota's. As long as the top 3 keep charging what they do for cars (which we know is a direct relation to what they have to pay their workers) I have no problem buying a Toyota, Nissan, etc when it saves me money. Don't sit there either and tell me what I have to drive. I have the right to buy whatever I want thank you very much.
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 02:37 PM
  #17  
adrenalin's Avatar
I Have No Life
 
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 10,605
Likes: 2
I am still surprised by how many people think that by giving the Big 3 money to survive is going to fix everything. It isn't. Way too much is being outsourced overseas and it usually is always for the same reason....cheap labour. Why do you think the automotive industry should be different. You either have to lower wages or lay off people. Picture a restaurant owner. Times are tough. User to sell angus steaks at $16.00 a plate. Hardly gets customers yet he raises the price to $24.00 and replaces the steak with a cheaper product. Do you think he will stay in business long if he did that and kept all of his staff. I know it might not make sense but how long do you think they can survive when the UAW keeps demanding more money. Someone has to pay for it some where and it is the buyer that forks out the extra cash. Less people have money to burn these days. If I look at 2 cars, 1 made in American Made (Canada/USA) and 1 import (Toyota, honda etc) I look at looks, safety, engine, etc etc etc. Then the price tag. If they are basically the same but one will save me 5 grand, well, that is the one that wins. Doesn't matter to me who made it.
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 05:49 PM
  #18  
Hollywood_North GT's Avatar
Thread Starter
Closet American
 
Joined: July 17, 2005
Posts: 5,851
Likes: 1
From: Vancouver, BC (Hollywood North)
Originally Posted by adrenalin
Well yes infact, I do like driving Toyota's. As long as the top 3 keep charging what they do for cars (which we know is a direct relation to what they have to pay their workers) I have no problem buying a Toyota, Nissan, etc when it saves me money.
I owned a Celica GTS in the late 80s. It was a terrific car - the interior was more tightly screwed together than my current Stang, judging from the dash rattles I've developed after only a year-and-a-half.

But Toyotas are not the automotive panacea everyone makes them out to be, especially not now that their quality has slumped. Meanwhile, the quality of Ford products (a few dash rattles aside) has gone way up (Ford turned a profit first quarter of this year and probably would have continued to do so all year had it not been for the economic downturn). Yes, the Big 2.3145769 need to address this labor issue, I agree...but not being willing to help them in their hour of need is simply not an option, and I would suggest you step back and look at the big picture - the REALLY big picture - that myself and many others have detailed numerous times in recent threads. Bottom line: this situation is TOO big and economically perilous to worry about the "luxury" of whether or not one is generally opposed to bailouts.

Originally Posted by adrenalin
Don't sit there either and tell me what I have to drive.
I won't have to. The decision will be made for you. I hope Hondoyota comes out with something to replace the Mustang so that when you're back in the market for a new performance car in a few years, there'll be an alternative for you (and all the rest of us).


Originally Posted by adrenalin
I have the right to buy whatever I want thank you very much.
Well, yes you do...and you're welcome very much.
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 08:05 PM
  #19  
adrenalin's Avatar
I Have No Life
 
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 10,605
Likes: 2
Originally Posted by Hollywood_North GT


I won't have to. The decision will be made for you. I hope Hondoyota comes out with something to replace the Mustang so that when you're back in the market for a new performance car in a few years, there'll be an alternative for you (and all the rest of us).
.

Hmmm, a Porshe or a 350Z. You're right. It is a tough decision.
Reply
Old Dec 18, 2008 | 08:50 PM
  #20  
Hollywood_North GT's Avatar
Thread Starter
Closet American
 
Joined: July 17, 2005
Posts: 5,851
Likes: 1
From: Vancouver, BC (Hollywood North)
Originally Posted by adrenalin
Hmmm, a Porshe or a 350Z. You're right. It is a tough decision.
One wonders why you didn't buy one of those to begin with then.

Hondoyota doesn't build Porsches, or 350Z's. I'm talking affordable performance cars here.

Last edited by Hollywood_North GT; Dec 18, 2008 at 08:52 PM.
Reply



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:59 AM.